Fundamentals
Growth and yield model
A quantitative model projecting how a stand develops over time under given site and management conditions.
Growth models project increment, mortality and volume over rotations. They are how a project estimates what will accumulate between measurement cycles, and how a baseline projects what an unmanaged stand would have done.
Their credibility rests on the data they were fitted to. A model calibrated on fast-growing plantations applied to natural forest produces confident nonsense, and this transfer is a recurring weakness in project documents.
Frequently asked questions
Do models replace measurement?
No. They interpolate between measurements and must be validated against remeasured plots.
What drives uncertainty most?
Mortality and site effects, which are harder to predict than growth of established trees.