Forest reference emission level (FREL)
The benchmark trajectory of emissions a jurisdiction or project would have produced without intervention, against which results are measured.
A forest reference emission level is a modelled or historical trajectory of emissions and removals. It answers a specific question: compared with what? Payments for results are calculated as the difference between this reference and measured performance.
Reference levels can be built from historical averages, adjusted for national circumstances, or modelled from drivers of deforestation. Each choice carries incentives: a historical average rewards jurisdictions that were already slowing loss, while adjusted baselines can reward those with genuine development pressure.
The technical work is scrutinising plausibility. A reference level that assumes implausibly high future deforestation inflates the apparent result, and this is precisely where independent review adds the most value.
Frequently asked questions
How is a FREL different from a project baseline?
They answer the same question at different scales. A baseline serves one project; a reference emission level covers a jurisdiction or country.
Who reviews reference levels?
Under UNFCCC processes they are submitted for technical assessment; under voluntary standards, an accredited validator reviews the methodology.